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Impeachable Offenses?

~ Examining the Case for Removal of the 45th President of the United States

Impeachable Offenses?

Tag Archives: 2018 midterms

Mueller to Interview Trump

09 Tuesday Jan 2018

Posted by crosbysamuel in Articles, Uncategorized

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2018 midterms, Collusion, Comey, FBI, firing, impeach, Impeachment, interview, investigation, Mueller, Obstruction of Justice, Politics, Putin, Special Counsel, trump

Special Counsel Mueller intends to interview President Trump soon, a decision which some believe signals the nearing of the end of his investigation. Though Trump has said that he is happy to talk about Russian collusion, a conversation he believes he will clear his name, his lawyers are scrambling to find a way to avoid or limit Mueller’s interview. Commentators believe what they are trying to avoid are questions about obstruction of justice: namely the firing of former FBI Director James Comey, and the lies former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, told the FBI.

Regardless of the motive for the interview, however, the timing could not be better for Democrats. With the 2018 midterms fast approaching, should Mueller’s investigation come to a close soon, its results may be a boon to Democrats running for Congress. And of course, if Democrats are able to obtain a majority in the House and Senate, impeachment will become more likely.

robert-mueller-mckelvey_j4wbro.jpegAlex Wong/Getty Images

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What’s all this talk of too soon?

21 Tuesday Nov 2017

Posted by crosbysamuel in Articles, Uncategorized

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2018 midterms, Pelosi, Politics, politics of impeachment, schumer, voter turnout

Amidst calls for impeachment by both congressmen and the public, some Democrats say the move is premature. Amongst these are House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer who warned the Democrats might “blow their shot.”

But why should premature calls for impeachment make it any less likely? An answer can be found by examing voter turnout trends for midterm elections. If there is to be any hope for impeachment, Democrats need to regain the majority in both houses of Congress. In order to do this in a timely manner, they must win seats in the 2018 midterm elections. If the 2018 elections follow historical trends, things are looking good for impeachment. Historically there has been a presidential penalty. The presidential penalty is caused by voter dissatisfaction with the Office, and generally causes the President’s party to lose seats. Additionally, James E. Campbell described midterm elections as lacking in the “wow” factor of presdential elections, which causes them to have relatively stable turnout compared to the volatile, party driven turnout of presidential elections. That being said, if the 2018 midterms become about whether or not President Trump will be removed from office, they may receive a voter turnout similar to a presidential election. That could be disadvantageous to the Democrats. Rather than Trump supporters staying home and letting the presidential penalty take effect, they may very well surge the polls in defense of their President.

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The Significance of Flake’s Retirement

25 Wednesday Oct 2017

Posted by crosbysamuel in Articles, Uncategorized

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2018 midterms, Arizona, bob corker, Jeff Flake, political question, Politics, politics of impeachment, Senate, Senator

Senator Jeff Flake announced on Tuesday that he will not be seeking reelection, and this article, from Politico, says that could be good for the Republican party. Flake is a loud critic of President Donald Trump, and that hasn’t not won him friends in the electorate: he hasn’t gained Independent or Democratic votes, and has alienated Republicans in the process.

So, what does this mean for impeachment? It goes back to yesterday’s discussion of Trump’s relationship with the Senate. If Trump’s dissenters are pushed out of Congress, then impeachment chances suffer. It may be that the President will have to do something particularly egregious to make enough enemies in Congress for impeachment to become an actuality.

160729-jeff-flake-ap-1160.jpgAP Photo

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Trump Trading Sides

18 Wednesday Oct 2017

Posted by crosbysamuel in Articles, Uncategorized

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2018 midterms, bannon, luther stranger, politcal question, politics of impeachment

This article reports that President Trump may be risking alliances with the Republicans in Congress in order to support Republican populist challengers. It is a risky move if that’s the case. If the incumbents keep their seats, then President Trump will have increased his chances of impeachment; however, if he suceeds, he may have a better time pushing his policies through the legislature.

donald-trump-impeachment.jpgBrendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

 

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Donors Warned about Impeachment

16 Monday Oct 2017

Posted by crosbysamuel in Articles, Uncategorized

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2018 midterms, donors, political question, politics of impeachment

This article summarizes a presentation given to GOP donors, which focused on what the party stood to lose should Democratic incumbents win house seats. Central to this presentation was an implication that losing the House would mean further investigation into Russian collusion, and an increased chance of impeachment.

I would be surprised if this sort of presentation was uncommon. However, it does highlight an important issue: the 2018 elections will have a major influence on President Trump’s imeachment chances. Therefore the state of the political world over these next few month is highly significant.

trumpdonald_101317getty_2.jpg

 

 

 

 

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Could a Political Swing Lead to Impeachment?

08 Tuesday Aug 2017

Posted by crosbysamuel in Articles, Uncategorized

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2018 midterms, political question, The House of Representatives

This newsweek article quotes John Podhoretz, who theorizes that if the Democrats take the House in 2018 then President Trump will be impeached. However there seems to be very little consideration for Trump’s high crimes in his analysis, which leaves one wondering whether the Political Question the Drafters intended to guide impeachment, hasn’t turned into a measure of Political Might. 

house.jpgNBC

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Frank O. Bowman, III


Floyd R. Gibson Missouri Endowed Professor of Law
University of Missouri School of Law

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